AFTER PETROL WHAT IS NEXT?

The petrol supply and its price is the lifeline of a country's economy and survival. Too much supply or the lack of it will affect the health of the country. However it is the price increase that is more worrisome as it will affect everything from transportation to electricity bills and cost of thousand items. We can see the effect of the spiraling food prices in Malaysia recently when the government decided to incease the petrol price at the pumps from RM1.97 up to RM2.70 in response to the global crude oil price increase to close to US140 per barrel. Eventhough as an exporter of crude oil, Malaysia has a lot to gain when the price of crude goes up in terms of the country revenue, the effect of the petrol price increase is a political suicide. Too low of the price will reduce Malaysia's income which can be used to support her budget to develope the country, too high a price will increase the inflation rate.

It is estimated that Malaysia's reserve of oil can only last at the most for another 10 years while the gas reserve can go another 20 years. What is next after that? Are we going to be the net importer of oil and at the mercy of oil producing countries?

As a sovereign nation, it is imperative for Malaysia to start looking and researching for the next alternative to produce energy to feed her industries and common use. Malaysia is currently relying on petrol, coal and hydro to produce eletricity. However, the cost of supply of petrol and coal is increasing which will translate to higher bills for the people. The use of dams are clean but might not be sustainable from the point of view of environmental issues.

Malaysia needs to invest money into research of using the solar, wind and as a last resort the nuclear technology to cater for her needs beyond the 21st century. The use of solar and wind power to generate the electricity will be a bit subjective as Malaysia has a large cloud covers over her skies, and sustained blowing wind will depend on locations and season. However, their usage can help reduce dependency on petrol. A lot countries in the world are already using these two methods to reduce their dependency on petrol. Some countries are using the power of the waves along their shoreline to produce electricity to supply small towns. This method can be tested for eastcoast towns in Malaysia where the waves can reach 1.5m for a few months of the year.

The last and most controversial method is the usage of nuclear reactors to produce steams to push the turbines. Nuclear has a long life span of 100 years if i am not mistaken, however it is costly and takes about 15 years to construct, and have a few environmental issues as can be seen in the Chernobyl episode in Russia. But, with a proper planning and management the risks can be reduced and the people of Malaysia can see affordable electric bills hopefully. I believe Malaysia has commenced a research on nuclear on a small scale years ago, what the government needs to do now is pouring more money in this field and start courting with friendly nations like Russia and China for technical assistance in erecting the reactors.

Why am i only suggesting Russia and China and not the US? Well, i believe the US policy in relation to nuclear issues is inconsistent depending on her interest as can be seen in the case of Iran. Russia and China tend not to mix other issues with business unlike the US. With the Islamic phobia going on around the world due to 9/11, will Malaysia being an islamic country going to cause concern by going nuclear? Well, i think it is worth a try for the sake of its people.

WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND

The US is experiencing another economy turmoil with massive bailouts of Lehman Brothers and AIG after both companies mismanaged their finances in business dealings. This came right after the subprime crisis a few months ago that will make millions of Americans lose their homes. The feelings on the streets are of anger and loathing of the Wall Streets and the government headed by George Bush for failing to protect the man on the streets. The bailing out of all these hugh companies by using the federal money is actually transferring the burden to the government which actually using the taxpayer money. Throughout this episode, very few top executives got their head chopped off which says a lot about accountability and personal responsibility among the group of elite businessmen. The US government is busy in trying to pass a few policies to save all these companies which can drag the US economy back to Stone Age.

Funny, when i look at the whole situation, no matter what they preached others not to do in the last 1997 worldwide financial crisis, they are actually go against their principle when their neck is at stake. What goes around comes around people say. Now, it looks like Malaysia is vindicated when she took her own unorthodox style of solving the financial crisis in 1997 against the screaming of IMF led by the US. We have our ex-PM Tun Mahathir to thank for his bold and brave policy to resuscitate the economy despite all the objections within the country and from international economy experts.

The funny part about the current economy situation is the perception of the people in the US and Malaysia that their governments are not doing enough to elevate their suffering and are more concerned about the health of the business elites. In the US, the people are facing the prospects of losing the foreclosure of their homes due to the subprime crisis, inflation is up with the increase of petrol and food prices, and losing jobs as the big corporations are closing down. The same thing is happening in Malaysia where we can see the people are screaming for heads to roll due to the government's decision to reduce the subsidy of the petrol which leads to the increase of inflation from 4% to 8.2%. In their frustration, they turned to the Opposition party believing all the sweet promises that the whole thing can be turned around instantly if the Opposition is in power. However, nobody is commenting on the policies of the US government which is now showing its true colors eventhough they said should be the standards the Malaysian government should emulate. The truth is, there is not much difference in the style of governing of both countries, the only problem is that the people have different needs and priorities compare to the government. The people are looking at their survival and comfort level and daily problems while the government has to balance between the people's needs and the management of the economy at the macro level, foreign investments, GDP, budget balancing and so on. When the two are not the same then there will be a lot of dissatisfaction among the people which is made worse by the manipulation by certain group of people to achieve their own agendas.

It is not a good position to be in as the President of the US and PM of Malaysia right now, as the pressure is building up to save the economy on one hand and to please their peoples on the other. As the economy of the countries in the world are intertwined due to the globalisation, we cannot help that economical turmoil in one country like the US will affect smaller countries like Malaysia. We can see now the tumble in the Malaysian stock market in response to the jitters relating to the Wall Streets crisis. It is important that the crisis faced by one country be solved their own ways without the preaching by other countries as what goes around comes around.

WHAT HARI RAYA MEANS TO ME

Hari Raya or Aidil Fitri Eid is the day the Muslims all over the world celebrates their victory after a whole month of fasting in Ramadhan. For those who steadfastly fast and performed other good deeds during the month, they will rejoice as they will blessed by God. Those who cheated are those who lost.

When i was a kid, i was looking forward for the arrival of this month. It has a certain aura, excitement and challenge to it. Like most kids, i started fasting for only half a day to test my strength and will power. My mother said it was okay as i was only nine then. Eventually, i managed to fast a full day and become very proud that i could fast like an adult and breakfast with them at the same table. The night time my village friends and i would go to a mosque and surau to learn Terawikh prayer. We would chit chat after the prayers and joked around before going home. Life was simple then and full of joy. Relationship with the villagers got closer during this month as we practiced exchanging home cooked food, i was the delivery guy for my family. The night of Tujuh Likur was celebrated by putting up Tang Lung and playing firecrackers with my friends which includes some Chinese kids. Kind of think of it, now that i have grown up and know the rules, that was the right thing to do. But, i noticed kids nowadays still do it even in KL.

The best day was when the Eid or Hari Raya arrived which is on the 1st Syawal. Everybody got so excited the night before, cleaning the house and the compound, and my sisters and my mother spent the whole night cooking dish and cookies for guests coming to visit us the next day. Everybody got up early and put on their new clothes and went to the Surau for Eid prayer. After the prayer everybody shaked hands, some give angpau (money) away but i prefer receiving instead, what do you expect for a kid? I got plenty enough ang pau money to be stashed away in my piggy bank to buy stuff that i loved, without my mother knowing it of course. The Eid will be celebrated for at least two weeks i think.

Fast forward to the present day, Hari Raya or the Eid still is exciting but not as much as back then. I wonder what changed? I guess when we were kids everything would excite us as we were carefree. I had a lot of relatives back then and all of their sons and daughters were my friends. A lot of them have passed away since them and their kids had grown up and moved to other cities and lost touch. The biggest change for me is that both of my parents have passed away, my dad in 1985 and my beloved mother November 2007. Eventhough my brothers and sisters are still around, Hari Raya for me has lost its biggest reason to go back home.

Now that i have become a father of two, i could see in my kids' eyes the same excitement that i went through when i was a kid. Now it is not about me anymore. Driving home to my in-laws up north is such a drag with traffic jam up to Ipoh and Penang. The five hours journey is very taxing and costly now that the price of petrol had gone up along with the price of car repairs and tolls. Still, for the sake of my kids and wife, the journey is still worth it. I also use the Hari Raya break to unwind from the city life stress, do some fishing and countryside exploration. Perlis has wonderful scenery with imposing granite hills and mountains.

After two weeks break, i would be recharged and ready for KL life again. But sometimes, i wish the old days never change, i missed it so much. But like some famous saying goes " the only constant about life is change".

Selamat Hari Raya/ Happy Eid to all Muslims all over the world, may God bless you all.